Source: Marginal REVOLUTION
A comprehensive survey of economists and AI experts reveals a striking consensus: significant AI advancement won’t break historical economic patterns, with GDP growth remaining flat and labor force participation declining modestly rather than collapsing. This challenges both utopian and catastrophist narratives by suggesting AI operates within existing economic constraints rather than changing them fundamentally. The finding matters because it either reflects genuine analytical rigor about AI’s integration into existing systems, or means that experts are anchoring predictions to the familiar, unable to model genuine discontinuity when it arrives.