Source: Nikkei
India’s $11B smartphone export boom—driven by supply chain diversification away from China and rising smartphone manufacturing capacity—is hitting an inflection point where geopolitical risk now outweighs structural growth tailwinds. A potential 22-25% export collapse tied to Middle East conflict would expose how dependent these gains are on uninterrupted logistics corridors and component sourcing, rather than durable competitive advantages in design or brand. This shows why India’s manufacturing ambitions remain hostage to global instability even as the country gains hard-won export share.